iPad Analysis: Apple Already Two Years Ahead?

Do you think any other tablet coming to market will be a serious iPad competitor?

Bajarin: I believe Apple has a good two-year lead on the competition. HP’s Slate will be a respectable tablet, but being Windows based, I’m not sure it will have the same appeal of an iPad. And the various Android tablets may match Apple in some functions, but Apple’s lead in games and apps will give it a significant edge. And devices that try to bridge the gap between a tablet and an eReader are interesting, but unless they can develop an ecosystem of software apps and services to match Apple, they will have a tough time competing.

Gartenberg: It doesn’t feel that way at the moment. What we’re seeing is other platforms such as Windows 7 or Android being put on tablets. The problem is neither of those platforms are optimized for that form factor. If all Apple did was put OS X or the iPhone OS on a larger form factor, that would have been interesting to some but not likely the mass market. It’s the attention that Apple put on making the UI for the platform both familiar but also extended beyond current iPhone/iPod devices that will make it successful. Competitors are going to need to optimize and focus on the details of the form factor if they’re going to be credible alternatives.

Kay: Other tablets are fine as far as the hardware goes, but what sets Apple apart is how well touch is integrated into the device and the completeness of its solutions (e.g., the content deals to go with the streaming services and great hardware). Nvidia Tegra–based tablets will be plenty capable, and Qualcomm smartbooks will fill another need (highly 3G connected devices with keyboards). But Apple is out to establish a whole new market.

Rubin: In the short term, the iPad will see competition from two main kinds of slates: those based on Intel processors, running Windows, an optimized Linux distribution, or eventually Chrome, and those running a smart phone operating system, primarily Android. The former will bring a high-performance web experience (albeit at the expense of battery life and perhaps weight), while the latter will be available at very low prices, certainly less than $200 and perhaps as low as $100. If Apple can establish momentum, though, and particularly drive native app development, it could create a commanding lead as it did with the iPod, leaving even lower-priced competitors to fight over a small part of the market.

Burning Questions:

1. Do you think the iPad will change mobile computing more than netbooks have?
2. How many iPads do you think Apple will sell? Is it already a hit?
3. Do you see the iPad as having any major weaknesses that consumers care about?
4. What do you see as the potential killer apps for the iPad?
5. Will the iPad help HTML5 replace Flash as the video delivery mechanism of choice for websites?
6. What percentage of customers do you think will order the 3G model?
7. Where do you see most iPad use taking place? At home? On the road? Work?
8. Are there any tablets coming to market that could be a serious iPad competitor?