iPad Analysis: Apple Already Two Years Ahead?

Where do you see most iPad use taking place? At home? On the road? Work?

Bajarin: This is really focused at consumers, so I believe its main use will be at home and when traveling. It has the potential to be a device that could be used at work, but not for its first generation.

Gartenberg: Given that context is the killer app for the iPad, it’s going to be all three; that’s what it’s appeal will be. For home use, it’s a better couch device than a laptop or phone for casual e-mail or web browsing. Out and about, it’s optimized for content consumption and for work use, and there’s enough functionality to occasionally leave the laptop behind. I think all three scenarios are going to play heavily in the device usage and adoption.

Kay: In my opinion, the prime usage model for the iPad is the dedicated living room device. That is, it doesn’t really travel; it just moves around the house. Think teenage girl sitting on a couch, chatting with friends, viewing videos, and looking stuff up. I don’t really see it as a productivity device, and it’s not portable enough to replace a phone. I think His Steveness calculated that people would speak ill of the device if it didn’t have 3G, so he made it an option, but the real usage model fits squarely with the $499 price point. You don’t need a lot of memory because the apps are cloud oriented (e.g., streaming video); you don’t need 3G because you’re not really using it in your car; Wi-Fi is enough. And if you take it to your hotel, you can use it there on Wi-Fi.

Rubin: Because it is a not a pocketable device, we’ll likely see a lot of iPad usage coming from the home, as we have for netbooks. The iPad is well suited for use on the couch or in bed. Because it can function as an eReader device, we will also see it used in some of the settings we’ve seen eReaders—on trains, buses and airplanes, and in coffee houses. Unlike netbooks, iPads can be used in settings where one doesn’t have a surface on which to set the device. That said, it’s harder to see consumers toting along both a notebook and an iPad, whereas many travelers bring both a notebook and an Amazon Kindle. On the scale between smart phone and laptop, the iPad is closer to a laptop.

Burning Questions:

1. Do you think the iPad will change mobile computing more than netbooks have?
2. How many iPads do you think Apple will sell? Is it already a hit?
3. Do you see the iPad as having any major weaknesses that consumers care about?
4. What do you see as the potential killer apps for the iPad?
5. Will the iPad help HTML5 replace Flash as the video delivery mechanism of choice for websites?
6. What percentage of customers do you think will order the 3G model?
7. Where do you see most iPad use taking place? At home? On the road? Work?
8. Are there any tablets coming to market that could be a serious iPad competitor?