Top 5 Apple WWDC 2009 Predictions

We all know what the event is supposed to be about. The eagerly anticipated iPhone 3.0 software (which will bring goodies like Spotlight search, cut and paste, and MMS) and Snow Leopard, the next version of Apple’s Mac OS X operating system (which promises much better performance). But what sorts of surprises might–or might not–be in store? I’ll be in San Francisco Monday for the keynote to find out, but in the meantime here’s a few predictions.

1. The low-cost iPhone is for real. A $99 4GB iPhone sounds too good to be true, but it could happen. And if it does, this device will send shock waves through the industry. Customers will not only likely ignore dumb phones in the same price range, low-cost smart phones like the Samsung Jack will also be given the cold shoulder. Some analysts predict that a $149 iPhone is more likely, but even then that could hurt smart phones like the BlackBerry Curve ($234.99) 8900.

2. Apple won’t have an answer for netbooks–again… The very recent spec bumps for the $999 MacBook and promotion for a free 8GB iPod touch for students were pretty well timed. It’s as if Apple is saying, “Stop pestering us about netbooks. Look how much more we’re giving you for your money!” There’s no question that this refreshed machine is a better value than it was before; however, the sweet spot of the market has quickly moved to $399, and I don’t think the iPod touch is a true netbook alternative. Apple needs an even lower cost Mac, presumably the rumored media tablet with touch, but I doubt anything like this will surface at the show.

3. …but Apple will announce an SDK for touch-enabled Mac apps. If the App Store has helped Apple move a ton of iPhone and iPod touches, why wouldn’t the same hold true for Mac computers? I predict that Apple will start courting developers starting at WWDC09 to begin creating applications that take advantage of 10-inch (or larger) displays, giving them plenty of time to prepare for an early 2010 release of the media tablet. Microsoft is out there playing up its Touch Pack for Windows 7 ($79.95) and its operating system’s multitouch capabilities, and I believe Apple will need to assert its dominance in touch computing at the conference.

4. QuickTime X could give Flash a run for its money. One of the most asked questions about the iPhone is when it will get full Flash support. My answer? Never. And that’s because I think Apple wants to leverage its QuickTime X technology as a potential replacement. Just read the description: “a streamlined, next-generation platform that advances modern media and Internet standards.” QuickTime X isn’t just an updated standalone player; it will be the way Apple chooses to deliver video across multiple types of connected devices, including the iPhone, Macs, and the next-gen Apple TV ($149.00).

5. Steve Jobs will not be in the house. There’s a reason why Apple keeps repeating that Mr. Jobs will be back to work at the end of June. And I don’t see him making a “one more thing” cameo either. I could be wrong–and I hope I am–but this keynote seems to be in very good hands with Phil Schiller & Co.

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