The official Geeks Geek, as his weekly column is titled, Avram Piltch has guided the editorial and production of Laptopmag.com since 2007. With his technical knowledge and passion for testing, Avram programmed several of LAPTOP's real-world benchmarks, including the LAPTOP Battery Test. He holds a master’s degree in English from NYU.
I disagree on the movie theaters, mouse(maybe), desktops, and maybe phone numbers. I have a tv and a movie player. But I still go to theaters for the same reasons as other people- have fun with friends and family, don’t have to buy a movie, and majority of us do not have a screen as large as the movie theaters and have popcorn popped for us. As for mouse, I think it will take a lot longer time than described here for it to be used as secondary. There are only so many gestures someone can make with 2 hands and do it without tiring out their hands and arms. Desktops- because of the space available, more custom parts can be added and hardware can have high performance but still cheap compared to compacted hardware for tablets and laptops. Consumers will still be drawn into cheap(er) prices. In order to ensure that everyone gets a “contact ID” there has be to numbers so asking a girl her number will still continue for years to come until someone finds a better, easier solution that continues to meet demands
I like having an original hard copy of my movies and music. I like the booklets, the disc in it’s original form and all the extra stuff they can add to it for fun. I’ve been dreading the day they go extinct. The only times I’ve used my mp3 player was to cut the grass.
Wired Internet is not going anywhere. Yes 4G at this moment is as fast as broadband, Well some of it. I have the 105Mbps package from Xfinity. So it is nowhere near as fast as that. Which is going to be the main reason why Wired Internet will be here for a while.
there will also always be a market for dedicated cameras/camcorders. if for nothing else than battery life, better sensors and lenses, and media storage capacity.
Landlines will soon be gone. I completely agree with that. for residential applications at any rate.
The mouse is not going anywhere. It isnt. Too many people hate using track pads. and a mouse just works.
The Desktop is another thing that will not be going anywhere. because you will always be able to get more power out of a desktop than a tablet or a laptop. Now the desktop may morph into more of a central home server, but it will still be a around for a while.
And movie theaters will not be going anywhere in the next 10 years. Because in the next 10 years 70″+ 4320 def Televisions will not be affordable to everyone. So it will necessitate going to the theater to get the experience.
Sorry but physical media will be around until I don’t have to ever see “loading” or “buffering” from Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, etc. I don’t want to be watching the newest blockbuster and have stops when my local loop gets busy from everyone else trying to watch as well.
You almost got it right. Here are things that wont go away. Mouse/ 3d glasses/ Desktop case/ Phone number. Nick already offered a good explanation for mouse/desktop case/ and phone number. The reason for which 3d glasses cannot go away is simply how our eyes work. Unless someone figure out how to stream light directly into each eyes without glasses, we can never go glass free. (Of course I am talking about multiple people watching 70″ TV, not 3DS nintendo stuff). IMO, I hate gesturing/touch screen. It’s unnatural/ tiring/ laggy/ inaccurate and simply no tactile feedback.
I have to say, some of these predictions read like they’re being made by someone who isn’t aware that the vast majority of people don’t own upper-middle class technology.
Movie theatres disappearing? No way; Comcast cable + DVR (or whatever he’s predicting will replace it) + home theater system = waaaaay more than most people can afford. Movie theatres will stick around.
Desktop computers disappearing? From retailers, sure, but the prevelance of online parts availability a’la Newegg, and the fact that most of the rest of the world (even technologically-dominating Japan) still has brick-and-mortar parts stores shows that the author’s likely to be able to enjoy building desktops with his son for a long time.
And then the whole thing with windowed-UIs disappearing, mice disappearing, and phone numbers being replaced by user-IDs……. these things may happen, but let me offer this in regards to the first two; windowed desktops and mice are by far the fastest, most refined input paradigms, barring keyboards and macros. Windows 8 doesn’t make Metro the “default” UI- it’s just the Start page, the login screen- and if you’ve ever used a 32″ touchscreen (which requires far more effort in terms of waving your arms around than an iPad) to try to navigate a webpage full of links, you’ll know why people still prefer touchpads/mice to touchscreens.
I know these articles are largely page-view aggregators (is predicting the death of fax machines even relevant enough to merit mention?) but some of these read far too much like an Apple Indoctrinatee emerged from a cave and saw Cupertino, and thought it was so shiny and vast that it must be the whole world.
On the upside, I think you’re spot-on in predicting the death of landline internet- something many of these “death of ‘x’ technology” articles often overlook. Also, while SSDs becoming standard even in low-end computers may be further off than it takes for your son to grow up, I’m sure it will happen, since HDD speeds are already becoming the bottleneck for many computers, alongside DDR3.
I didn’t mean to sound too antagonizing, and I enjoyed the article and the thoughts it provoked.
Don’t take it seriously. Articles like this are just written for the 15 clicks per viewer that they generate. This guy is no more qualified to predict technology in the years ahead than anyone else.
The mouse isn’t going away. Unless your computing consists mainly of writing blogs for magazines, touch screens aren’t enough. It’s tiring to keep lifting your hand to the screen anytime you want to do something. People who work 8 hours a day at a computer won’t put up with it. Not to mention, lack of fine control, lack of precision due to big bulky fingers, obscuring the screen with your hand or finger whenever you touch the screen.
A mouse is a very handy thing. You get to rest your hand and arm on a desk at a comfortable height. Slight movements of the wrist and fingers give you lots of control in interacting with small components on your screen. I can imagine it getting much smaller (perhaps just a ring or thimble you slip on a finger), but it will stay around for desktops. Touch screen desktops are pretty much fail from the get go.
Speaking of which, desktops will not die either. The reason is that most people still do their work sitting at a desk. This was true centuries before computers were invented, and will remain true long after computers have morphed into something different. It doesn’t have to do with computing, it has to do with the human body and the decreased need for physical labor. So computers will continue to be designed for desktop use.
On a desktop, size and weight are very secondary concerns. What you want is a huge screen that can show you a lot of information at once, and/or let you multitask. Even when people are working at a single task, they still need multiple channels of information. If you’re typing a document in Word, you might still want a browser open to do research, grab information that helps you write, whatever. In the future we might be using totally different programs, but the amount of information and the different streams of information we need will only go up, not down.
I don’t particularly say anything about “desktop power”. Presumably that miraculous day predicted long ago will finally come, when a $5 chip can do everything the average person needs done. So I don’t doubt that handhelds with touchscreens will be capable of anything you need to do. But they aren’t designed to be optimal for desktop use, and desktop use isn’t going away. If someone’s going to sit at a desk for 8 hours each day interacting with a computer, that person will want a 30″ screen, a comfortable keyboard, a pointing device (mouse) which allows him to work without lifting his hand off the desk and waving it in front of a screen. They’ll want a multitasking OS that allows them to keep multiple windows open to use that 30″ screen, or their array of 30″ screens. This is about ergonomics, it doesn’t have a damn thing to do with technology. Unless humans change, or unless the desk work becomes obsolete, desktop computers are not going away.
Wired internet. I don’t see it going away. with ATT crying that they don’t have the bandwidth and they need to have datacaps and overage fees.. what makes you think there’s enough spectrum for wireless internet for everyone.
Real cameras, No they will still be around cell phones because of a whole host of limitations will never
replace all cameras.
windowing operating systems:
Nope sorry… I live in windowed os.. curently I’m editing a excell data and pulling data from about 10 different documents to build this excel sheet. Just think about how hard that would be if you could only see and edit one screen at a time.
Hard drives… hard drives are cheap and they will stay cheaper than SSD’s..
4tb Harddrive $300.00 4tb SSD… $10,000
Theaters it’s not just a movie it’s an outing with friends. not everyone can afford there own home theater.
I don’t see that going away anytime soon.. sure I’m working on my laptop at work..
but my desktop is grinding way at home. connect to major nas storage.. I don’t see a table or a laptop
as a replacement for the big home and work machines.
I will always be using a mouse or a mouse like device… I don’t see myself rubbing my oily hands all over my
screen. I hate track pads and clit mice make me insane.
for the things I think he’s right on
Landlines are dead.
slow booting laptops can be fixed.
3d glasses may go away… I just hope 3d will go away.
Phonebooks… are dead…
prime time is dead… I don’t watch anything “live” anymore.. even if it’s on right now
I will just pvr it for later watching … no ads.
The fax machine. I would like to see it go away but even today, I’m still filling out contracts and faxing them off to customers. When will the fax die… I have no Idea.
The CD-DVD. it’s cheap media.. it’s still cheaper than usb sticks. ya more and more people are streaming stuff. but I like the idea of buying Movies on physical media. Music.. ya the music cd is dead.
I feel as if some people take these fun articles a LIIIIIIIIIIIIIITLE too seriously. I thought it was quite thought provoking. I am 100% positive land lines will be gone when I am all grown up (27 years old) and have kids who are getting into college.
Another thing that is going to disappear in the future – face time with people and the art of conversation. People don’t even call back anymore, they just, text. It’s pretty lame.
this is a neat article idea but certain ones are bound to be false. there’s no way cameras won’t be around – still or video or otherwise. it’s not like people won’t make home movies or feature films or video blogs. almost sounds like you work for a phone company.
a hard drive should never go away. how would you feel if all your data was online, for ANYONE to access? don’t trust the internet to store your personal items.
movie theaters may die out, but I’m sure hundreds will still be around in 8 years. no way he’ll miss out on that in his life. kind of stretching it with that.
I bet when the moron who wrote this saw the movie Lawnmower Man he thought we would all be living in virtual reality worlds by 2000 too. Some of these are just ridiculous. The only ones that are even CLOSE to being accurate are the ones that are ALREADY pretty much not in use now like fax machines.
The trouble is, he WILL be using that technology in the next 5 years. And he WILL be using a computer in 5 years.
Wired Ethernet isn’t going to go away even in the home. There are practical reasons to have it, primarily because wireless still can’t keep up with wired.
Dedicated cameras and video cams, I will agree with you.
The wired phone is coming to an end. Although my cordless phones last longer (each) than my cell, and I can trade handsets easily.
I doubt that there will be much booting involved in the next few years. But it still makes sense to reboot every now and then, we aren’t even close enough to having reversible computing, and there will be times when we will absolutely need to reboot a computer. But you are right, it won’t take as long as it has been taking.
Tiles are nothing but nonoverlapping windows. I’m running Windows 8 right now, and I don’t see me losing the desktop to go tiled yet. It is still a useful metaphor.
SSDs are still rather pricey for their capacity. And we still haven’t worked out the limited rewrites in that form yet. I still foresee hybrid drives that give you the best of both worlds, high speed and high capacity.
Unless we have one heck of an uptick in our standard of living, nothing beats watching a movie on a huge screen. Not yet!
The mouse isn’t going to go away until we’ve lost the keyboard. Moving your hands from the keyboard to the mouse is pretty trivial, but moving it to the screen is a little more involved in trying to do touch screens. And I don’t just mean the hardware keyboard, they screen keyboard also needs to go away.
3d is overblown. Glasses or no glasses, it still has a while to mature to a decent usable technology, part of which will be the death of processing a 2D video into 3D, and just recording in 3D, with the processing finally working out a way for the old videos (and that’s not a sure thing!).
Remotes are probably on the way out, just like mouses and keyboards.
Desktops will still be around, they’ll just be called home servers. They’ll be headless, accessed totally through a tablet or laptop.
Phone numbers I will agree with. We’re going to have to expand the number system at some point, and why not just go with some kind of address (email address?) instead of a bunch of numbers.
On demand TV FTW!
Fax is practically dead now. Yes, my printer can send and receive faxes, but I never connect it to the telephone line.
With the advent of cheaper data plans, wide-area wifi, and the consolidation of music streaming services, you might be hard-pressed to explain to your 15-year-old son just what an Ipod was for. He’ll have access to all the music ever recorded by the human race on dozens of devices, any time, all the time. An Ipod will be a strange, quaint concept. Load music onto it? Whatever for?
This entire article seems to be the “In 10 years” fallacy. People often seem to think that the world will move much faster than it can. I would bet $250 that the average infant will, in the future, regularly use at least half of these technologies.
The writer bases this article on a few of false assumptions:
1. The entire population will adopt new technology rapidly – where in reality only the youth(ful) tend to embrace change
2. Most people use computers as casual web browsing appliances
3. Wireless technology is a silver bullet. There are a number of challenges to overcome before wireless can take over everywhere. Due to density of clients in a smallest space, the enterprise won’t give up wired in the near to medium term.
If you spend all day working at a screen, touch and gesture based interfaces (at least in their current form) are not the most productive. There are also human issues with touch and gesture. For instance if you spend all day huddled over a touch screen you’ll get a bad back, equally if your screen in front of you is touch, you’ll loose precision by extending an arm into the air.
Yes multi-touch track pads are OK and I’ve used them for many extended periods, but they aren’t as quick and don’t have the precision of a mouse.
What we are seeing in computing I believe is a divergence. Professional and casual use cases are driving different interface paradigms. But this doesn’t necessarily have to mean 2 products, just 2 interfaces into the same data. A great example of this is Ubuntu for Android. In theory (hardware permitting) you can have your mobile and all the portability that does with, then arrive at work, dock it and get all the productivity advantages of a desktop optimized OS.
There is nothing stopping Microsoft from following this example and have an Intel based phone that runs the Metro UI, which can be docked to provide the full desktop OS (assuming they don’t bork it too much). When you add in the option of using it as a thin client if you require applications that are more resource hungry, it makes a compelling argument.
At the end of the day, the enterprise space is not going to move away from large screens with precision input. Whilst the consumer space is moving towards a more convenience based portable approach. Technically there is nothing stopping convergence of these differing approaches.
I’m old enough, when I went to college in the mid 70s I owned a calculator but I also owned a slide rule because some professors wouldn’t let you use a calculator during a test. Recently my wife and I published BashTheBankers, a game for the iPhone, iPad, and iPod. To get a developer license from Apple, the first thing we had to do was fax our corporation papers to them. I realize it was for legal reasons, but the irony was not lost on us. In order to develop for a hand held, wireless, pocket-sized supercomputer, the first thing we had to do was pull out our old fax machine.
Interesting, but everyone under the sun has always predicted the death of many technologies. Truth is those that are not practical are not around, those that are still exist.
That analoge recording to tape. It’s huge in the music industry now to go back to the old school way and making music and record an album on it.
As for Camcorders – will always be around since high end video will be getting higher and there will still be a need for industry. What if your son goes into video?
Movie Theaters – Not going anywhere, not everyone has a 60″ screen and surrond sound in their house, or do they want them. Look at the futurist movie The 5th Element. In that version your home just has a bed, loo, and microwave.
Desktops – not going anywhere, gamers will make sure they have the power to play an and every game they want with the fattest graphic needed. I don’t think an iPad can do. Well unless your vision means we’re all playing Farmville.
Mouse – the mouse has changed and survived, the idea that we will all be gesturing is false. All the people I know need to use a mouse for work and not because they want to, but because it provides the precision they need for graphics and map making work. When screens become the size of a wall, and you can zoom into the .001 of an foot then maybe.
Slow Booting Computers – I was int he store the other day, and the sales person had a niffy app that would allow me to pay with a credit card right from his device. I was in line to pay, and he took it as a challenge to boot up his device before we go up to the official teller. Turns out he could not find the wireless network, then his connection was slow, and finally his battery life was fading out.
The point of my whole post is this, I’ve been using and programing since I was 10 yrs old. Now 40 I’ve seen computers come and go, tech change but still stay the same. Yes it would be great if all these were not around in 20 yrs, but lets face it. They will be and we will be using them, Why because we live in a consumer society where you and I have a choice. That choice allows me to hold on to old technology, and it means not only do we have to learn the latest and greatest, but also those tried and true pieces that work day in and out, and make our modern life not all that modern.
I’m skeptical of a lot of these predictions. Window-based GUIs are standard for a reason, as is the computer mouse. Until something comes a long that truly replaces their functionality, they’re probably not going anywhere. Most touch-based UIs are touch based only because mobile devices don’t have room for a mouse, not because touch based is a superior experience than a mouse.
I agree with some of this but I think most of it is just wishful thinking from a well-connected person, the real world doesn’t work like that. 40% of US households don’t even have minimal broadband (384k) much less decent speeds. http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10454133-94.html
think those people are going to get rid of their phones and desktops and wires and movie theaters? 10% of households in the US still use over-the-air television, think they are moving to all computer downloads instead of renting a dvd at the local store? Heck, you can still buy VHS movies at Walmart.
Movie theaters – lol, our town is building 2 brand-new 8-screen theaters. think they will be gone when your son grows up? not a chance, movies are making a revival around here. Just because you are happy watching real-time broadband downloads on your big-screen 3-D surround-sound doesn’t mean everyone will have one in the next few years.
Disk drives…really? physical disk drive technology has been at the forefront of the price/performance curve for the past 30 years, going from $700/megabyte to $0.08/megabyte – there is no reason to assume the healthy disk drive industry will dissapear in the next 15 years.
Optical Media will be around forever, Can’t trust magnetic media. Rock Solid Optical infused in a Mountain will definitely archive better than magnetic media. Write once Read many theory will always be around.
Rotating Hard Drives will go away, but not within 5 Years because of RAID 5 investments made now will still be used as tax deductions / depreciation costs etc..
Movie Theaters will never go away, Where can you take your Girlfriend / Fiance / Wife to a place you can make out without no one seeing you (Ie. Parents , etc..) .
Cameras will always be around because you can’t attach a Sports Zoom Lens to an Iphone (And if you do , remember, I gave you the idea ) Heh!
Desktops will always be around cause you can’t sit on a Laptop, but I can sit on my tower desktop without damaging it…..
Windows will be around as long as you need to multitask…. The whole point of windows is to have fifty or more screens you can watch at the same time, work at the same time… Etc. Try to use the focus method for 50 or so screens. heh!
Phone numbers will also be around till every phone company gets rid of System 7…. Digital switching and the Keypad (Which was developed with DTMF (Touch Tones) )
Many of these comments reflect the shock of the young that their familiar gadgets will be consigned to the landfill. The doomed items here seem to be a pretty good choice, particularly for consumer items. I might quibble with the demise of the multiplex: assuming that face to face socializing won’t entirely disappear, there’s always room for a place where you and your friends can go and then eat out afterward. HT only experience is either lonely, or requires a steady diet of Pizza, or, worst of all, someone actually cooking.
I like this article. Whether or not they will be obsolete in the next few years or not, he has some valid points for each device. I’m skeptical about movie theaters and mice, but I think all the other are true (May just take longer than expected for some)
” At some point in the next few years, broadband providers are going to realize that giving everyone home antennas is more scalable than wiring and maintaining each street’s network of fiber-optic cables.”
Kind of hard to MUX bandwidth this way. Why don’t you wait 20 years until your infant grows up and you can write a real report other than this garbage conjecture.
Here are some things they will not see. Cameras in 35mm format. Encyclopedia on paper as well as books. The joy of changing tv channels for mom and dad. Home phone for the house. Spiral notebooks as well as pen and paper for school. The ability to count and give back change without the use of a digital device. Weaopons in the house.Guns and rifles. Paper Identification.
Movie theaters: It’s not just seeing the show. You can watch a Broadway play on your home theater, but would you? Theaters will shift somewhat, becoming events for special occasions rather than where most people watch new releases, but they’ll still be around, especially those that offer premium services like full meals delivered to your seat by a waiter. And if theaters can stay ahead of the technology curve (e.g. glass-less 3D), people will still go because not everyone can afford the latest technology for their home when it comes out.
Slow-booting PC’s: Win7 was supposed to speed up booting, too, and it did – for a while. When I got my first Win7 PC, it booted in seconds. Now that I’ve been using it for a while and all the bloatware is firmly entrenched, it takes several minutes, longer than the XP machines I have in my home (that are older and have even more bloatware). ‘Sleep’ mode and other ‘always-on’ technology doesn’t help much when the power goes out, does it?
Optical disks: The medium may continue to change, eventually disks may be the size of a quarter or a nickel, but we’ll still have them. I download almost everything, I rarely BUY hard copies, but I often BURN hard copies for archiving. I lost over 400 movies stored on my Media Center PC due to crashes, and while I CAN re-download all of them, I really wish I’d had all of them backed up.
Come to think of it, not so sure about wired ethernet and landline phones, either. Pretty sure there will always be security conscious people who don’t want everything broadcast. And another thing about landlines, believe it or not, there really are places in this country where there is pretty much zip for cell coverage, and it’s never going to be economically feasible to put a tower in place to cover less populated areas, or every little hamlet that’s blocked by a hill.
The “wireless bandwidth” of our atmosphere is not infinite. In the future that bandwidth will be at such a premium for commercial machines and robots, that the majority of home internet connections will always be served by wire/fibre.
Landlines won’t be a thing of the past until cell phone coverage improves dramatically. I can’t even use my cellphone in my home, and the luddites in my town keep voting down permits to install cell tower. And anytime I travel to rural or mountainous areas – no cell coverage, but ample landline access. There are politics involved as well as the cost of technology.
Wired ethernet will still exist.
– it’s still the easiest way to get a secure network hard to break in…
– there are a limited number of channels for efficient wireless communication. This is a physical limit. So i doubt there will be a solution for this in 10 years…
Physical media like CD/DVD/BluRay will still exist.
– maybe not for all the trash movies and music we get every day. But for the things which will be still worth to buy, hold in your hands, unpack it and have fun with it. This has to do with something called “haptic” and since humans will be still themself build by physical components and will have at least 5 senses and not only two, there will be a market for physical medias with fun on it. But only for this things that are worth somethng itself, of course…
– last year the falling sales volume for CDs tend to stagnate. The DVDs falling will be compensated by BluRays (DVDs are still bestseller). The problem is the falling price of the content itself which gets the distributors of media content into financial problems.
RE: ” When my son is in high school, he’ll be asking the pretty girl on the bus for her user ID, not her phone number.”
QUESTION: What makes you believe in the longevity the the technology called “THE BUS?”
In 1912, there were Fathers who said to sons: “Son . . . there will always be Horses!”
I’m of the same opion as those above: Most of these technologies won’t disapear anytime soon.
Of all the technologies we know today (not resptricted to the blogpost) some may be less used, some will indeed be totaly abandonned, some may also be used more than today.
– Improvements affect both new and old technologies.
Whereas Avram Piltch suggest old tech will remain at their same state as of today while new hot stuff will get awesome.
As if movie theatres were still displaying black and white movies and crappy sound!
Photo cameras (soon to go 3D) are always one step ahead of cellphones.
Even fax machines could survive if they integrated more computer and internet technologies. Getting an instant printed document is not that bad a concept.
– New stuffs are not always reliable. Think of on-demand movies and music. Yeah, you can dowload anything at anytime… but you are always dependent of external serice providers, on what they decide is available or not, account expirations, bill payment, company bankrupcy, etc… hard storage is the only safe way to get “anything at anytime”.
Solid state storage is cool but a terminated DVD cannot be accidentaly erased. Wireless is easily put everywhere but try to get a decent signal acroos 3 floors of armed concrete.
– Old stuffs are easier to use. I’m not an old person but I’m already tired of all these new stuffs.
When I buy a new player I don’t even bother putting batteries in the remote control. Pressing a button on the machine itself is still my favorite way to do it.
New technologies tend to be more complicated and finaly not everything is the idealistic solution we thought it would be.
Basicaly some technologies are here to stay because there will never be anything else better for a given task.
To get a paper version the fastest way is to take a pencil, using a computer and printer is a huge loss of time and money.
On the opposite, to get a digital version the least practical method would be to use a drawing tablet and handwrite on it.
Yet, both exapmles are promoted as the most advanced technologies!
If you think your son will never use a mouse then I’m assuming he never plans of ever being a PC gamer. Touch screen will never be more accurate and precise as using a mouse.
Also, desktops will never go away. they are a power house that no laptops can compete with, and they don’t overheat unless you don’t take care of them or you overclock them whereas gaming on a laptop will make that poor sucker overheat years before it should if you never used it to game.
Loved the article. My grandsons at a year, can swipe an iPhone open. They know where their own folder is kept and access the toddler games inside. Cut the Rope and Angry Birds Rio seem to be a favourite plus of course Lego and Thomas the Tank Engine. I delight in seeing technology that many people don’t understand being accessed with ease by a small child. They have that innate power to concentrate on a task and work to understand, fit all the pieces of acquired knowledge together and voila! the job is done. As we grow up, our boundaries expand, other things come into view and we do not have that toddler’s concentrated thinking.
When transistors were just coming in, trying to convince my grandfather that his valve amplifier would produce the same power as the tiny chip in my hand was difficult. My mother on the other hand embraced technology such as it was in the 70s and had the first home computer on the block. She would have loved all thats going on now. I have no doubt she would have an iPad and smartphone the minute they came out.
I look forward to further ‘IT’ developments and my grandsons as they grow up with it.
You need to stop thinking about your son in terms of gadgetry. He’s a flesh-and-blood human being, not a cyborg. Get your head out of your gadgets and GO PLAY WITH YOUR BABY! And “play” does not mean “show him this cool game on the iPad.” “Play” means physically interact with him. Dangle toys for him to grasp. Pick him up and cuddle him. Just for heaven’s sake PUT THE DAMN GADGETS DOWN!
Does this guy have a point, or is he just hocking Windows 8? The mouse has been around since the 60’s (SRI invention), movies are constantly setting attendance/earnings records, and phone numbers aren’t going away. They’re just becoming more portable. As for the storage issue, how dull in this field do you have to be to not know that the eternal struggle of hard drives is size/cost/speed. Very few people have ever sacrificed speed for space. Most people probably took the 5400 rpm 1TB drive over the 500GB 7200 today. And it has always been that way. If an SSD comes out with a 1TB hard disk, you will be able to get a slower disk with 5 times the storage for 1/5 the cost. Speed is always sacrificed for storage for most people. It’s as if this person just picked up a Best Buy catalog and a list of buzz words, then decided to write an article.
Ok, I confess I barely have used Metro, but I don’t see much difference between windows (an on-screen resizeable and movable rectangle where data is shown, with or without bar or popup menus) and tiles (an on-screen resizeable and movable rectangle where data is shown, with or without bar or popup menus). It is the rounded vs right-angled corners?
I haven’t found a way / don’t know if it is possible to stack tiles the way I can stack windows (so I can work on a window while keeping an eye on a small area of another window behind), but IMO that is a disadvantage.
Must tiles be positioned / sized on a rigid grid, or they can be freely and continuously dragged anywhere like classic windows? Falling only on a rigid grid would also be a disadvantage.
I will never stop going to movie theaters..they’re timeless. a place to go with a large circle of friends to have fun or to go on a date with a girl that you’ve been talking to, we all know that’s the best feeling in the world. stealing a kiss halfway through the movie. the thought of theaters being at home just makes me think of deserted streets and socially awkward people not leaving their house. haha it’s probably just me, but i love movie theaters.
Who is this guy anyway? Movie theaters going away? Where else can you see a movie – on a large screen tv? One thing he is missing is the communal aspects of certain activities (in addition to the fact that no where else can you often see limited run and independent films). Yeah, lets watch Dark Knight Rising on a small tv screen, no imax…
As for the others, true, some of the things will be subsumed by other technologies (fax machines in PC, etc. SSDs getting cheap). But certain things that require standardization won’t, as well as the fact that certain technologies don’t exist yet to replace…
It’s like someone saying 2001 a space odyssey actually happens in 2001.
I don’t see the desktop computer or the mouse dieing out. Some of the other ones I think will last longer, but those two in particular I just can’t see departing from use. Aside from the standard responses of working at a desk being very common and the like, technology and power in a laptop is just not up to speed with a desktop and with the rapid acceleration of desktop technologies I don’t see them catching up either.
The average person could probably shift to a laptop yes, however people who are wanting to do any sort of semi-intensive and greater work are going to need the beefier desktops. Video editors and people who run in a highly technical profession are more likely to use a desktop. Likewise we cannot forget the billion dollar industry of computer gaming. Right now it is expanding rapidly and there are very very very few gaming laptops out there. The vast majority of gamers use a desktop and a mouse to operate their games. That alone I think will keep the market alive longer than indicated in this article.
I’m a tech junkie. Got all that sh** – DVR, NetFlix, Hulu, dedicated PC hooked to my 70″ screen with a wireless remote that has a full qwerty keyboard and touchpad. Also not ashamed to say that I download movies (pirate) from time to time. With all that – I can now literally watch ANYTHING I want – ANY TIME I want to watch it. All from the comfort of my living room sofa.
And you know what? My wife and I still go to the theater EVERY Sunday and pay that $13 for a ticket. Why? Because the theater is not about just seeing a movie. It’s an expierience. It’s “going out” – getting off the sofa. It’s interacting with other human beings and being with friends. It’s hearing the gasps and screams from people behind you when the 20ft tall boogy man jumps out from behind the curtain.
And I promise you – when your son hits 12 or 13 the *LAST* thing he will want to do is sit on the sofa and watch a movie with you. I don’t care how big your screen is or how amazing your sound system is. The theater will always be the “great escape”.
Most of these technologies will go away, in fact, I agree with most of them, the phone number will be replaced by the internet, the internet being the beginning of a type I civilization phone system, and we are well on our way to being a Type I civ, right now most physicists rate us at about a 0.7 Civilization. Optical Disks will go away before 2030 I am sure, and as for 3d glasses we have already started getting rid of them, I know some people have claimed that because of the way our eyes work 3d glasses cannot go away, but I am here to tell you that is wrong, Nintendo already has figured it out with the 3ds and that technology will soon be finding its way to regular 3d televisions. In fact, by the year 2100 it is predicted that we will be watching Holographic TV, so by 2030 I am positive that 3d glasses will be long forgotton. Yet, most of this has already been predicted by Michio Kaku and if you dont know who that is your living in a science bubble from the 1950’s. A well reknown physicist who has wrote many books and lectures on this topic, look him up on google, and you tube actually has a lecture from him about our technology in 2030, you should take a look at it!
@Matthew what the writer is trying to say is that Sata will go away for the general consumer, can you tell me what in the world you will ever need 100 TB Hard drives for? I mean in the casual consumers point of view, 100 TB is alot of information, and without newer technology to adapt for the information size on a SATA hard drive, a 100TB HD would be extremely slow. Most regular consumers can get away with a 1TB HD and you can buy 1TB SSDs now, they are expensive, but the price will drop as soon as technology expands as it always does and SSD tech will become cheap just like the SATA did. I can remember a 500mb HD going for 500$ back in the day when the tech was new, I mean, we were paying a dollar per megabyte. It may sound crazy to some of you, but for those of us that were around for those days it was punishing. I can also remember when you could only get a 50 mb hardrive and the rest came from floppy disk. Our civilization is quickly advancing, and even though we have not come as far as some thought we would have by now, can you imagine, technology expands exponentially, and moores law will still be in effect for awhile now, there is a limit to how long moores law can keep going, but were not near the end yet.
Here, in 3rd world country (Karachi) Pakistan, technologies (surprisely they exist) that have / are already quickly becoming outdated:
1. WiMax internet have all but replaced cabled dsl or dialup etc
2. Cabled phone now rarely in home replaced by wireless Mobile Phone
3. Mobile camera, Nokia Pureview, Samsung galaxy, Iphone have all but replaced Dedicated Digital Camera
4. Laptot are becoming more common than Desktops in homes connected to large LCDs
5. Fax machine being a rarity in most offices or home replaced by email
6. Watching movies cheaply at home on Hdtvs with home theatre, projecter etc rather than going to costlier cinema complex
Movie theaters gone in a few years? NO WAY, JOSE’! We thought the same thing in the early ’80s at the advent of pay per view. Working next to a medium sized movie theater, TRUST ME-your now infant son will be making out in the dark in one of those before he’s 20!
Anyone predicting the death of movie theaters because of improvements in home theater technology and same-day-as-in-theater release dates doesn’t understand why most people go to the movies in the first place. I watch hundreds of movies a year but only a dozen or so in the theater. Otherwise I’m watching on my outdated 36″ home TV. The last non flatscreen TV in the state of Texas I think. When I do go to the theater it’s not because I have to see a certain movie presented in the biggest possible medium or because I simply can’t wait three months for it to show up on netflix. It’s not some inconvenience that I have to sit here with all these strangers just so I can see this movie. Watching it with all those strangers is the whole point. It’s a shared experience. It actually enhances the movie. Even a mediocre comedy is markedly funnier f the crowd is into it. Some films should only be viewed in a theater setting. Lame horror movies and cliche disaster flicks for example. Home theater is fine for most of what I watch but it’s limited in the fact that it’s a “home” theater. Same reason a sports fans will leave the comfort and convenience of their living room to watch a game at a bar on what is often a smaller screen. Or why hundreds of thousands of them buy tickets n the nosebleed section of stadiums where you;re lucky if you can tell which team is which. Those sporting venues aren’t going anywhere and neither are movie theaters. If the cost of going to see a movie in a theater is exorbitantly high right now it’s because the tichets are still selling out. When they reach the point that people can’t stomach it or can’t afford iit they’ll stop buying up all the tickets and the market will adjust. $13i might sound like a lot for a movie ticket when they used to be only few dollars, and a $5 Mr. Pibb is even more ridiculous, but if you compare the total cost of the ticket and concessions and compare it to another outing, say a live concert, it’s actually pretty affordable. A few select names in the music industry, artists or groups with huge baby-boomer fanbases that have a lot more expendable income than younger audiences, are charging $200 dollars for a concert ticket. To me that’s ridiculous. $200 for three hours of bad live versions of song young already know. Eight dollar beers. An hour stuck in traffic afterwards. It makes thirty bucks spent at the theater seem pretty reasonable. And those ridiculously expensive concert tickets aren’t going anywhere either. No matter what advances are made in audio technology in the future.
wired home internet – definitely will still be around, fibre is much faster than 4g as it offers speeds up to 1gbps
same with wireless internet within the home, it is around 45mbps in best situations and for streaming blu-ray quality you would need greater speeds
Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders – Standalone cameras have better lenses and sensors than mobiles, there is no optical zoom on a phone. they won’t be going away.
landline – yes that will be gone for sure
slow-booting computers – of course they will be gone, all of my pcs already boot extremely fast
Windowed Operating Systems – doubt it, you can’t do powerful mutlitasking without a windowed operating system. Having to switch between seperate fullscreen apps constantly would be a productivity nightmare.
Hard Drives – Probably right that SSDs will overtake them
Movie Theaters – I dunno man, 4k resolution is coming. Starting with the hobbit, nobody has 4k sets at home yet although maybe in 10yrs consumers will have access to 3D 48fps 4k screens…
The Mouse – Haha nah that will still be around in 10yrs, you can’t beat it as an input method. Touch is okay for some things but I couldn’t imagine trying to do any sort of graphics work on a touchscreen ugh
3D Glasses – I sure hope so!
Remote Controls – Yeah I can see phones replacing those
Desktops – I hope not. Seems kinda silly having to setup a laptop on a dock to access multiple displays and how would you go about upgrading components? I doubt the desktop will disappear
Phone Numbers – Well yeah, people already ask for facebook instead of phone number. So that one has gone already.
Prime-time Television – Although prime-time television as you know it will disapper, there will still be certain times each week that an episode is released for the show you watch. Same sort of deal
Fax Machines – Definitley needs to go, they are stupid as hell. Just scan the document and email it as a PDF.
Optical Discs – The internet has to advance before they can get rid of optical discs. When movies on blu-ray are around 45gb each it’s expensive to store them and transmit them. I don’t know any legal online services that provide that level of quality.
Many of us who still have landlines are NOT luddites. Myself, I don’t need a cell phone. There are times when I don’t want people to be able to contact me. A landline serves all my needs AND I’m not paying hundreds of dollars a month for an electronic leash.
Landlines are not going away. Not as many people will use them, but they’re still cheaper and more reliable than cells.
As for the others, I can see them staying around. With cloud computing you’re not buying the book/movie/music you’re buying access to it. Access that can be turned off at a moment’s notice. What’s going to happen to all those thousands of dollars you spent on Amazon emedia when the company goes under and gets replaced by the next big thing? Who will be laughing then?
Wired internet? I have broadband and dial-up. Broadband is faster – when it works. A little rain and my dial-up gets used. When we have adequate, high speed universal coverage, people will give up hard wires. Maybe I’ll life that long.
My telephone landline will go away when I don’t have to use it in order to ring my misplaced cell so I can find the cell phone.
My mouse still has a wire plugged into my PC so when the cat smacks it off the desk, I can still find it.
Touch screens – I don’t think so – That same cat likes to rub against the screen because the static electricity tickles its fur.
Hand-helds and laptops are small enough for that cat to push off desks and look really cool as they fall to the floor.
Trusting my personal storage to Cloud makes about as much sense as trusting the people at F/B with private data.
As for hand-helds of any type replacing full size versions – anybody notice that screens got smaller and smaller til suddenly the screens started getting bigger?
Movie theaters – not entirely, particularly for people who want the experience. If someone just wants to see the movie, then, yeah, big home screens are the way to go.
Slow-booting computers – I wish. While many people are going to constantly on, for those of us whose electricity goes out every rain storm, and who have learned to shut down and unplug every time we leave the house, we’re still going to boot up. Yeah, yeah, back-up batteries, surge protectors, all those toys – been there, done that, lost more than one power supply because those devices are not as reliable as they pretend to be.
I have to disagree on the digital camera angle–at least for a while. My day job is in a photo lab. I can’t tell you how many people try to get photos they took using their phones printed. Most of the time, the photo is blurry, pixelated and just plain bad. I’ve often told people, if you want good photos you need a camera. The photos taken with your phone are great for sharing online and good in a pinch, but most phones don’t take photos worth making into a 4×6 let alone anything larger.
If you can get a phone with a 14 mega pixel camera, optical zoom and ISO controls, then buy it. Otherwise buy a camera. You’ll be happier with the photos and won’t lose that important one of the baby’s first steps.
Tiled windows will be a thing of the past? I hope not. I HATE windows 8. If I wanted a tablet, I would have bought one. Also, I want to pay once for a program. I don’t want to have to pay a monthly or yearly subscription for something I can pay once for now. That’s what Windows 8 is all about. It’s making personal PCs more like android tablets and storing everything on the cloud or in sky drives. You might have to pay a subscription price MONTHLY or YEARLY for every app you use (at least this is what I’ve been told. My information could be wrong) and could be forced into the new version every time there is one whether you have the time to spend on that steep learning curve or not, because your subscription will make updates to the new software automatic. Why not? If this is true, you would be paying for it over and over and over again. I get trained on this crap regularly. I can see it coming, but it doesn’t mean I have to like it. The only way people like me can fight back is to say I’m NOT buying into it–and I won’t.
I hope movie theaters don’t go away. I LOVE seeing a good sci-fi or action flick on the big screen. Sure 3D home theaters are getting better, but I don’t know anyone who has a big IMAX screen in their livingroom…yet.
As for the other stuff, I like the idea of the SSD drive. they have less moving parts and are less likely to crash and lose your data. The other stuff I can see going away. I haven’t had a land line phone in years and I couldn’t give a crap about the rest of it.
While I agree that these things will go away sometime, but their date of death is dependent on access speed and bandwidth. The US is still lagging many countries in having uniform broadband access at a reasonable cost. Our local area not far from a major metropolitan city has only two providers of high-speed Internet and the data transfer costs are prohibitive for many of the applications he thinks will replace these items. DVDs may be passé, but the data cost for downloading a movie, particularly HD is much higher than its cost – locally $1/GB for 4G access. With local DSL and cable broadband speeds and numerous prime time users, forget streaming any high-quality video without jerks and stops.
The aging and inadequate US communication infrastructure is a major roadblock to many technical advances and has been ignored for so long that no one considers when making predictions like these. I advise a number of small businesses who would like to use cloud services, but access limitations and costs kill that idea every time.
So let me get this straight. Guy writes an article about 15 predictions and he can’t even get the FIRST one right? I don’t write for any magazines or blogs and I’m not an IT guy but even I know that is flat out intellectual dishonest. Lets look at cable modems for example. Considering the DOCSIS 3.1 platform is aiming to support capacities of at least 10Gbit/s downstream and 1Gbit/s upstream, I think it’s safe to say wired broadband isn’t going anywhere in the next couple of decades. Until some sort of new long range wireless technology is invented, we won’t be seeing those kinds of wireless speeds anytime soon. Sure not everybody needs that kind of speed, but rarely is anything ever about need when you’re a consumer. This isn’t even taking into account how much more secure wired connections are.
I still keep my home PC wired to my router as well. Thanks, but I think I’ll keep my 150megabit per second down 20 megabit per second up cable modem connection.
He just might WISH he could use some of these old technologies when he develops myriad health problems associated with pulsed, non-ionizing, radio frequency radiation that will surround him. I hope his dear old dad will remember the days when humans could live in their environments without headaches, heart palpitations, endorphin addiction to wireless frequencies, sleep difficulties, parotid gland cancers, etc. He may be able to tell his son about the time when school rooms weren’t equipped with defribillators to save children when they have “heart events” caused by wireless routers and iPads that they will all be getting. When DNA wasn’t altered by this toxic technology. When feee access was afforded to all who wished to frequent their neighborhood library, coffee shop, city council meetings before wireless made these areas inaccessible. When families weren’t forced to have so-called “smart meters” attached to their homes, creating non-stop exposures to wireless radiation, 24/7. Dad, please try to let your precious son know that there was once a time before big telecom took over, infiltrated the government with special interest lobbyists, and made us go unconscious to what is really happening. Teach him well. It’s your job. Thank you.
Are you really a geek? 4G is only fast because it’s lightly used by relatively few people when compared to FTTH. Good luck trying to fill the airwaves with all that crap, aside from the fact that it leaves EVERYONE prone at the same time to any random prankster with a super simple transmitter injecting noise and easily disabling everyone’s internet. ASIDE from the fact that these “wireless towers,” would still need fiber connections.
Nobody else said it, but I think you are also wrong about businesses doing away with their desk phones. Desk phones are less hassle than wireless for businesses, not more. They can be used in conjunction with wireless headsets to go all over the building for those who want them, but the desk phone will stay. Especially for any person who works in the same office all day and makes a lot of calls as part of their job, it’s much more convenient to reach for the phone and know it is right there, instead of fumbling around looking for it, or having to go back home to get it. Add the convenience of using all the functionality provided by a PBX and dialing only a 3 or 4 digit extension number to reach anyone in the office, and you really can’t replace all this with cell phones very easily.
Hand gestures won’t replace mice gaming on pc and someone will always make dekstop parts. As for Windows I will have to stop using it if they force us to use the metro ui. I don’t see the problem with keeping windows, if it ain’t broken don’t fix it. Landlines will always be there in some sort of way, or atleast a large phone system for companies. At the state mobile internet is in now, I think it will not evolve and replace land lines for MANY years to come. Yes it may be almost as fast as land internet, but that’s for one device, either everything will have it’s own sim or whatever and then you have to pay for each/have them in a group deal either that or one shares a wireless hub. Seeming as landline is being updated as well as wirless there will be a while before it’s replacement.
I hope, I can still build my own PC from parts in future. I don’t want a device whom I am not the owner but some company like Google, Micrososft or Apple. My prediction is that in order to gain more comfort and usability we will give up our ownership of the devices we buy. One example are tablets and smartphones, where you can’t install any XY app or build your own program in any programming language. The trend is that people except that they are data cows for companies that make big money from the collected data. I hope, that we will stop this someday and get back the ownership over our data and devices.
I loved your comment on the death of “windowed” operating systems in favor of the Metro tiled style. That sure didn’t work out like you predicted. Windows 10 is totally going back to the windowed OS…thankfully. W8 was a nightmare to use.
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